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February 9, 2012

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Watch Out! Mankind May Yet Screw up a Good Thing!

by George Anderson
Vice President, Engineering, Crown Iron Works Company

Even if you are one of the scientists who believes in the strictest and most inevitable versions of global warming theory, be practical and a bit humble.

1. It seems 100% evident that the earth system is in a very reliable balance with a norm that is beneficial to our survival and relative prosperity. It is quite possible that we are stressing this balance in one direction or the other–and perhaps global warming is to some extent true. Nevertheless, the earth has experienced extremely severe crises in the past, and given the extremes of temperature, chemistry, radiation, etc. throughout space, we remain in an extremely privileged place, incredibly robust.
2. The evidence is that extremes in our biosphere have existed in the past.  CO2?  It has been much higher than today and never much lower than it was at the 1800’s low point when it was near the point that vegetation seriously slows its growth. Temperature? Clearly Greenland was once warm enough to plant and colonize, yet during a cold period much of Minnesota was under a glacier. The climate oscillates in a fairly narrow range and is surely at all times near some optimum level at most times in history. At least it is near optimum given the horrific range of extremes that exist everywhere else we have seen in the universe, starting just about 5 miles up.
3. Keep in mind that we are worried about a 1 or 2 degree change, in a universe with absolute zero up to millions of degrees. If mankind does anything that does not quickly reverse itself, we will be the first suicidal species with enough brainpower to regret it.  (My apologies to lemmings which are said to blindly follow their leader and run off cliffs en masse: perhaps they do have the brains to regret it.)
4. Example: Please don’t put mirrors or dust in orbit so it reflects away about 1% of the sunlight and makes the earth “better”. When the next cycle occurs, it will surely screw up our agriculture and may even force a permanent ice age and kill most or all of us. Always remember that economies falter or even fail. Electro-magnetic pulse, nuclear war, or simple lack of discipline (H. G. Wells’s “Time Machine” gives one possible future.) could take our technology backwards. If we stick something in orbit we may not be able to get back up there and take it down. I would suggest history tells us that soon enough every civilization drops back a step, and someday we definitely will not be able to get back up in space….
5. I heard a Russian speak of putting dust in high atmosphere so it falls back within a few short years.  If we stop continually putting it up there, the effect ends. Basically, it is a short-term, controlled reflectance or absorption–much like volcanic effects. That is a far safer long-term plan (safer than dust above the air in orbit) because it self corrects (assuming we don’t discover that it does not really fall down as expected). However, a huge caution flag: if we cannot model and cure the economy, can we model and cure the far more complex earth weather system? What kind of “deficit” will we discover and play with in nature, just as we play (at our peril) with the national deficit in money?

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